Sadek al-Naboulsi: Hizbollah wants war, he said. Do they still?
Al-Naboulsi has a unique approach to resolving a serious problem plaguing Lebanon since 2022 — war against Israel.
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Some are saying that Hamas invaded Israel on October 7th because they saw us as weakened by the anti-government demonstrations that blocked major traffic arteries, the calls for Israeli tech companies to take their money out of Israel, and for the reservists not to answer calls to duty. Yesterday, Turkish-Israeli “X” account, Haber Israel, reposted a videoclip that was originally published last July by MEMRI, a video that seems to confirm that view. The video is being recirculated as if it is new — beware! It is from seven months ago. But still, it merits attention.
The text in the tweet says: “Hezbollah’s true intentions indicate that they seek war and seek to escalate tensions in Lebanon and the wider region by engaging in conflict with Israel.”
An astonished and clearly worried interviewer makes sure she understands what Lebanese political science professor Sadek al-Naboulsi is saying. She exclaims that what he says is very dangerous.
Al-Naboulsi explains that Hizbollah needs war against Israel in order to resolve the domestic Lebanese political stalemate — no president has been elected since Michel Aoun‘s term ended in 2022. The post is generally held by a Maroun Christian but Hizbollah has offered a candidate of their own and neither of those running for the position has been able to achieve the majority required to win. The situation is so serious that a number of foreign countries are trying to resolve the problem (but foreign intervention into Lebanese affairs is probably as welcome and as effective as foreign intervention into Israeli affairs).
In any case, Al-Naboulsi says in the video that war against Israel will allow Hizbollah to resolve this deadlock.
Hizbullah'ın gerçek niyeti, savaş peşinde olduklarını ve İsrail'le çatışmaya girerek Lübnan'da ve daha geniş bölgede gerilimi tırmandırma çabalarını gösteriyor. pic.twitter.com/a9dTpXiRNc
— Haber İsrael🎗️🇮🇱🎗️ (@ShemaNews) February 18, 2024
I’m not sure I understand the logic of this expectation — that war against Israel would solve a domestic Lebanese problem? I suppose that al-Naboulsi believed that they would win this war given Israel’s seemingly weakened state last summer. A win would inflate Hizbollah’s status and bring their candidate to the presidents’ office. However, perhaps even just engaging in war without necessarily wining it would be sufficient for Hizbollah’s purposes. War would be devastating to Lebanon, for sure. While the Christians in Lebanon have not been traditionally opposed to Israel, they may have been becoming more so. Win or lose, then, they could perhaps blame the destruction on Israel rather than on Hizbollah (Gazans know something about this — although by the time of this writing, Gazans have grown open about blaming Hamas for what it wrought upon them. Not that they have changed their minds about Israel, mind you, they have not.)
Back to Sadik al-Naboulsi: on October 18th, he was still fired up for war. He begins here by threatening America, reminding it about the 1983 bombing of the marine barracks leading to their quick pull-out out of Lebanon. Then, he goes on to talk about
a full-on all-out war with the Israeli enemy. We should wage this war. Our nation should wage this war with all its power. The Egyptian people must not remain neutral and the Jordanian people must not remain neutral.
But that was before the Israeli land incursion into Gaza on October 27th.
Now that Sadek al-Naboulsi sees what Israel is doing in Gaza, does he still believe that war with Israel is the solution to Hizbollah’s inability to get the presidency in Lebanon?
The Lebanese people are afraid of war. Sadek al-Naboulsi should be too.
Feature Image is a screenshot of the television interview in this article.
